AI insight
88% chance of a further slip within 60 days
From the SPI trend (0.82), the task closure rate and the open risks, the early-warning engine expects another slip unless the resource gap is closed.
Confidence82%
PRJ-2026-002Off track7ExecutionConstruction
Northern Ring Road Development — Phase 2
Remove from watchlist38 km of the Northern Ring Road, three lanes each way, with six grade-separated interchanges.
Project managerEng. Ahmed Y. AsiriSponsorEng. Turki A. Al-AnaziProgrammeRegional Road Network Programme
Early warning: 88% chance of slipping within 60 days
Budget (BAC)
SAR 1.2B
Actual cost
SAR 532.9M
45% of budget
Progress
42%
Planned 51%
Estimate at completion
SAR 1.3B
SAR +88.8M
SPI · CPI
0.82Schedule performance index · 0.820.93Cost performance index · 0.93
Forecast finish
2027-09-12
74 days behind baseline
ExecutionPhase 7 of 11
Next gate:Monitoring & Control11 January 2027
- Idea · CompleteIdea · Complete
- Gate into «Feasibility»DecisionGoDate15 September 2023Feasibility · CompleteFeasibility · Complete
- Gate into «Initiation»DecisionGoDate3 January 2024Initiation · CompleteInitiation · Complete
- Gate into «Planning»DecisionGoDate3 March 2024Planning · CompletePlanning · Complete
- Gate into «Approval»DecisionGoDate3 May 2024Approval · CompleteApproval · Complete
- Gate into «Procurement»DecisionGoDate8 June 2024Procurement · CompleteProcurement · Complete
- Gate into «Execution»DecisionGoDate13 September 2024Execution · Current phaseExecution · Current phase
- Gate into «Monitoring & Control»DecisionNot held yetDate11 January 2027Monitoring & Control · Not startedMonitoring & Control · Not started
- Gate into «Handover»DecisionNot held yetHandover · Not startedHandover · Not started
- Gate into «Closure»DecisionNot held yetClosure · Not startedClosure · Not started
- Gate into «Benefits Realization»DecisionNot held yetBenefits Realization · Not startedBenefits Realization · Not started
Project health across eight dimensions
A weighted index, not just percent complete; each dimension leads to the tab that explains it.
Health index
60
Weak — act now
Off track
- Schedule41A material slip on the critical path.Off track
- Cost63CPI below 0.95 — watch it.At risk
- Risk46A high risk open without an adequate response.Off track
- Scope67Scope changes pending.At risk
- Quality66Open quality findings on some deliverables.At risk
- Resources73Members allocated above 100%.At risk
- Stakeholders44Resistance from an influential party.Off track
- Benefits91Benefits on track.On track
Index over the last six reports
−21
May to October 2026
No material change in the health dimensions over the period.
Copilot summary
Generated from the live project data
The project is behind plan: 42% done against 51% planned.
SPI 0.82, CPI 0.93.
Progress & earned value
3 of 5 milestones complete
Earned-value curve
Planned, earned and actual to the data date, cumulative, with the forecast cost tail
- Planned value
- Earned value
- Actual cost
- Estimate at completion
- Budget at completion
Budget & commitments
Commitments are 93% of budget
532.9M/ 1.2B88.8Mprojected overrun(7.5%)
- Actual spend
- 532.9M
- Committed
- 1.1B
- Approved budget
- 1.2B
- Estimate at completion
- 1.3B
Next milestones
- Provisional acceptance2027-05-20was 2027-03-25Late
- Closure2027-09-12was 2027-06-30Late
Waiting on someone
1 approvals and 2 open actions on this project
Approvals & requests
From «My actions» for this project
- Payment certificate
Actions
2 open
- Ask the Saudi Electricity Company to divert the HV lineEng. Bandar M. Al-Shammari3 days overdue2026-10-2514 Jumada I 1448 AHHigh
- Analyse the budget impact of price adjustmentsHaifa S. Al-RuwailiIn 13 days2026-11-1030 Jumada I 1448 AHHigh
Change requests
Cost and schedule impact
Risks & issues
4 open risks, exposure SAR 101.5M
Risk map
Probability
5Probability: Almost certain · Impact: NegligibleLow · Score 5Probability: Almost certain · Impact: MinorMedium · Score 10Probability: Almost certain · Impact: ModerateHigh · Score 151Probability: Almost certain · Impact: MajorCritical · Score 20RSK-0015Steel and asphalt price rises driving price-adjustment claimsProbability: Almost certain · Impact: SevereCritical · Score 25
4Probability: Likely · Impact: NegligibleLow · Score 4Probability: Likely · Impact: MinorMedium · Score 8Probability: Likely · Impact: ModerateMedium · Score 121Probability: Likely · Impact: MajorHigh · Score 16RSK-0017Contractor claim for a 120-day extension with compensation1Probability: Likely · Impact: SevereCritical · Score 20RSK-0016Late land acquisition and utility diversions in sections 3 and 4
3Probability: Possible · Impact: NegligibleLow · Score 3Probability: Possible · Impact: MinorLow · Score 6Probability: Possible · Impact: ModerateMedium · Score 9Probability: Possible · Impact: MajorMedium · Score 12Probability: Possible · Impact: SevereHigh · Score 15
2Probability: Unlikely · Impact: NegligibleLow · Score 2Probability: Unlikely · Impact: MinorLow · Score 4Probability: Unlikely · Impact: ModerateLow · Score 6Probability: Unlikely · Impact: MajorMedium · Score 81Probability: Unlikely · Impact: SevereMedium · Score 10RSK-0018Safety incidents in traffic diversion zones
1Probability: Rare · Impact: NegligibleLow · Score 1Probability: Rare · Impact: MinorLow · Score 2Probability: Rare · Impact: ModerateLow · Score 3Probability: Rare · Impact: MajorLow · Score 4Probability: Rare · Impact: SevereLow · Score 5
12345
Impact
- Critical2
- High1
- Medium1
- Low0
Open issues
1 escalated
- Road alignment clashing with a high-voltage line in section 4ISS-0116 · Eng. Ahmed Y. AsiriHigh7 days overdueSLA breachedEscalated
- Resident complaints about traffic diversionsISS-0117 · Eng. Ahmed Y. AsiriMedium5 days leftWithin SLAIn progress
- Interchange 5 designs awaiting approvalISS-0118 · Eng. Ibrahim A. Al-GhamdiMedium10 days leftWithin SLAOpen
Deliverables
1 of 4 approved
- Project management planDLV-002-1 · V1Eng. Ahmed Y. Asiri920 days overdue2024-04-2112 Shawwal 1445 AHIn review
- Main deliverable — stage 1DLV-002-2 · V1Eng. Bandar M. Al-Shammari2025-11-122025-11-1221 Jumada I 1447 AHApproved
- Main deliverable — final stageDLV-002-3 · V1Eng. Bandar M. Al-ShammariIn 75 days2027-01-113 Shaʻban 1448 AHIn progress
- Final reportDLV-002-4 · V0Eng. Bandar M. Al-ShammariIn 245 days2027-06-3025 Muharram 1449 AHDraft
Team, contracts & documents
Team
4 members
Eng. Ahmed Y. Asiri · Director General, Roads & BridgesEng. Turki A. Al-Anazi · VP, Projects & InfrastructureHaifa S. Al-Ruwaili · Senior Financial Analyst
- Eng. Ahmed Y. AsiriEng. Ahmed Y. AsiriDirector General, Roads & BridgesProject managerP-020a.asiri@alwaha.gov.sa60%
- Eng. Turki A. Al-AnaziEng. Turki A. Al-AnaziVP, Projects & InfrastructureProject sponsorP-010t.alanazi@alwaha.gov.sa20%
- Haifa S. Al-RuwailiHaifa S. Al-RuwailiSenior Financial AnalystFinancial analystP-037h.alruwaili@alwaha.gov.sa15%
Meetings
- No meetings scheduled