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PRJ-2026-003At risk7ExecutionWaterfall

Board Backup Data Centre

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A Tier III backup data centre that keeps Mueen and the judicial systems running and recovers them after a disaster.

Early warning: ⁦63%⁩ chance of slipping within ⁦45⁩ days

Budget (BAC)

SAR 148M

Actual cost

SAR 117.1M

⁦79%⁩ of budget

Progress

⁦72%⁩

Planned ⁦80%⁩

Estimate at completion

SAR 162.6M

SAR +14.6M

SPI · CPI

0.90Schedule performance index · 0.900.91Cost performance index · 0.91

Forecast finish

⁦2027-01-07⁩

38 days behind baseline

ExecutionPhase ⁦7⁩ of ⁦11⁩

Next gate:Monitoring & Control7 September 2026

  1. Idea · CompleteIdea · Complete
  2. Gate into «Feasibility»DecisionConditional goDate18 October 2024Feasibility · CompleteFeasibility · Complete
  3. Gate into «Initiation»DecisionGoDate5 February 2025Initiation · CompleteInitiation · Complete
  4. Gate into «Planning»DecisionConditional goDate6 April 2025Planning · CompletePlanning · Complete
  5. Gate into «Approval»DecisionConditional goDate6 May 2025Approval · CompleteApproval · Complete
  6. Gate into «Procurement»DecisionGoDate24 May 2025Procurement · CompleteProcurement · Complete
  7. Gate into «Execution»DecisionGoDate11 July 2025Execution · Current phaseExecution · Current phase
  8. Gate into «Monitoring & Control»DecisionNot held yetDate7 September 2026Monitoring & Control · Not startedMonitoring & Control · Not started
  9. Gate into «Handover»DecisionNot held yetHandover · Not startedHandover · Not started
  10. Gate into «Closure»DecisionNot held yetClosure · Not startedClosure · Not started
  11. Gate into «Benefits Realization»DecisionNot held yetBenefits Realization · Not startedBenefits Realization · Not started

Finance & earned value

The full budget structure, cost broken down by eight dimensions, cash flow with its S-curve, and earned-value indicators with an automatic end-of-project forecast.

Budget anatomy

The approved SAR 148M split into spent, committed and left, with the estimate at completion

Forecast overrun SAR 14.6M
EAC SAR 162.6M
Revised request SAR 148M
  • Actual spendSAR 117.1M
  • Committed, not spentSAR 22.4M
  • Allotted, uncommittedSAR 4.1M
  • Contingency availableSAR 4.4M

Budget

Original budgetwhen the first baseline was approved
SAR 144.9M
Approved budgetafter approved change requests
SAR 148M
Current budgetavailable to spend now
SAR 148M
Revised budgetif the pending changes are approved
SAR 148M

Commitments

Commitmentssigned contracts and purchase orders
SAR 139.5M
Contracts2 active contracts
SAR 133.1M
Purchase orders⁦0⁩ orders
SAR 6.4M
Remaining budgetapproved less actual
SAR 30.9M

Spend & outlook

Actual costincluding accruals
SAR 117.1M
Accrualswork done, not yet invoiced
SAR 4.7M
Estimate at completionthe PM’s bottom-up forecast
SAR 162.6M
ContingencySAR 3M drawn of SAR 7.4M
SAR 4.4M

Budget bridge

From the original to the revised request

  • Total
  • Increase
  • Decrease

Contingency draw-downs

SAR 3M drawn of SAR 7.4M

  • Covering realised delivery risks⁦2026-08-29⁩SAR 3M

Cost breakdown structure

Every dimension adds up to the same totals

Cost breakdown structure — WBS
ItemBudgetSAR MCommittedSAR MActualSAR MEACSAR MVarianceSAR MConsumption
1Management & governance11.4813.0113.0113.01⁦−1.53⁩
2Analysis & design24.4127.6527.6527.65⁦−3.24⁩
3Build57.4265.0565.0565.05⁦−7.63⁩
4Testing & acceptance28.7121.3711.3830.70⁦−1.99⁩
5Launch & handover21.5312.410.0024.00⁦−2.47⁩
Unallocated contingency4.440.000.002.22⁦+2.22⁩
Total148.00139.50117.10162.64⁦−14.64⁩

Budget split

WBS

SAR 148M

Budget

  • Management & governanceSAR 11.5M⁦8%⁩
  • Analysis & designSAR 24.4M⁦16%⁩
  • BuildSAR 57.4M⁦39%⁩
  • Testing & acceptanceSAR 28.7M⁦19%⁩
  • Launch & handoverSAR 21.5M⁦15%⁩
  • Unallocated contingencySAR 4.4M⁦3%⁩

Cash flow

Planned, committed, actual and forecast

Spend per period

SAR millions

  • Planned
  • Actual
  • Forecast

Cumulative S-curve

Cumulative to close

  • Actual, then forecast
  • Planned, cumulative
  • Committed, cumulative
  • Forecast

Earned value management

At the data date ⁦2026-10-28⁩

Planned value, earned value and actual cost

  • Planned value
  • Earned value
  • Actual cost
  • Estimate at completion
  • Budget at completion

Finish by earned schedule

⁦2027-09-03⁩+277

SPI(t) ⁦0.69⁩ against the approved finish ⁦2026-11-30⁩

Planned valuePV
SAR 146.9M
The value of the work that should be done by today.
PV
Earned valueEV
SAR 106.6M
The value of the work actually done, at plan prices.
EV = % complete × BAC
Actual costAC
SAR 117.1M
What has actually been spent on the work done.
AC
Budget at completionBAC
SAR 148M
The approved budget for the whole project.
BAC
Cost varianceCV
⁦−10.54⁩ SAR M
Earned less actual; negative means paying more than the value.
CV = EV − AC
Schedule varianceSV
⁦−40.37⁩ SAR M
Earned less planned; negative means behind, in value.
SV = EV − PV
Cost performance indexCPI
0.91
Value produced per riyal spent; under 1 is an overrun.
CPI = EV ÷ AC
Schedule performance indexSPI
0.73
Work done over work planned; under 1 is behind.
SPI = EV ÷ PV
Estimate at completionEAC
SAR 162.6M
What the project will cost when it finishes, as forecast.
EAC = BAC ÷ CPI
Estimate to completeETC
SAR 45.5M
What is still to be spent to completion.
ETC = EAC − AC
Variance at completionVAC
⁦−14.64⁩ SAR M
Budget less the estimate; negative is an overrun.
VAC = BAC − EAC
To-complete performance indexTCPI
1.34
The cost efficiency the rest must reach to stay on budget.
TCPI = (BAC − EV) ÷ (BAC − AC)

Automatic end-of-project forecast

Four ways to estimate the final cost, and the date earned schedule points to

  • At today’s cost performanceSAR 162.6M
  • If the rest goes to planSAR 158.5M
  • At cost and schedule performanceSAR 179.9M
  • The PM’s bottom-up estimateSAR 162.6M
  • To stay within SAR 148M, cost performance on the rest must rise to ⁦1.34⁩ — above what has been achieved.

Estimate at completion at that performance

SAR 162.6M

Variance at completion: ⁦−14.64⁩ SAR M

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