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PRJ-2026-004Critical7ExecutionConstruction

East Waha Wastewater Treatment Plant

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A 120,000 m³/day tertiary treatment plant with a reuse network for irrigation.

Early warning: ⁦95%⁩ chance of slipping within ⁦30⁩ days

Budget (BAC)

SAR 412M

Actual cost

SAR 333.5M

⁦81%⁩ of budget

Progress

⁦68%⁩

Planned ⁦92%⁩

Estimate at completion

SAR 490.5M

SAR +78.5M

SPI · CPI

0.74Schedule performance index · 0.740.84Cost performance index · 0.84

Forecast finish

⁦2027-02-03⁩

126 days behind baseline

ExecutionPhase ⁦7⁩ of ⁦11⁩

Next gate:Monitoring & Control14 May 2026

  1. Idea · CompleteIdea · Complete
  2. Gate into «Feasibility»DecisionConditional goDate28 July 2023Feasibility · CompleteFeasibility · Complete
  3. Gate into «Initiation»DecisionGoDate15 November 2023Initiation · CompleteInitiation · Complete
  4. Gate into «Planning»DecisionGoDate14 January 2024Planning · CompletePlanning · Complete
  5. Gate into «Approval»DecisionConditional goDate4 March 2024Approval · CompleteApproval · Complete
  6. Gate into «Procurement»DecisionGoDate2 April 2024Procurement · CompleteProcurement · Complete
  7. Gate into «Execution»DecisionGoDate20 June 2024Execution · Current phaseExecution · Current phase
  8. Gate into «Monitoring & Control»DecisionNot held yetDate14 May 2026Monitoring & Control · Not startedMonitoring & Control · Not started
  9. Gate into «Handover»DecisionNot held yetHandover · Not startedHandover · Not started
  10. Gate into «Closure»DecisionNot held yetClosure · Not startedClosure · Not started
  11. Gate into «Benefits Realization»DecisionNot held yetBenefits Realization · Not startedBenefits Realization · Not started

Finance & earned value

The full budget structure, cost broken down by eight dimensions, cash flow with its S-curve, and earned-value indicators with an automatic end-of-project forecast.

Budget anatomy

The approved SAR 412M split into spent, committed and left, with the estimate at completion

Forecast overrun SAR 78.5M
EAC SAR 490.5M
Revised request SAR 412M
  • Actual spendSAR 333.5M
  • Committed, not spentSAR 70.5M
  • Allotted, uncommittedSAR 0
  • Contingency availableSAR 12.4M

Budget

Original budgetwhen the first baseline was approved
SAR 390.6M
Approved budgetafter approved change requests
SAR 412M
Current budgetavailable to spend now
SAR 412M
Revised budgetif the pending changes are approved
SAR 412M

Commitments

Commitmentssigned contracts and purchase orders
SAR 404M
Contracts2 active contracts
SAR 388M
Purchase orders⁦0⁩ orders
SAR 16M
Remaining budgetapproved less actual
SAR 78.5M

Spend & outlook

Actual costincluding accruals
SAR 333.5M
Accrualswork done, not yet invoiced
SAR 13.3M
Estimate at completionthe PM’s bottom-up forecast
SAR 490.5M
ContingencySAR 8.2M drawn of SAR 20.6M
SAR 12.4M

Budget bridge

From the original to the revised request

  • Total
  • Increase
  • Decrease

Contingency draw-downs

SAR 8.2M drawn of SAR 20.6M

  • Covering realised delivery risks⁦2026-08-29⁩SAR 8.2M

Cost breakdown structure

Every dimension adds up to the same totals

Cost breakdown structure — WBS
ItemBudgetSAR MCommittedSAR MActualSAR MEACSAR MVarianceSAR MConsumption
1Management & governance23.9829.4329.4329.43⁦−5.45⁩
2Design & permits47.9658.8658.8658.86⁦−10.90⁩
3Civil works151.86186.38186.38186.38⁦−34.52⁩
4MEP works119.8995.6358.86137.52⁦−17.63⁩
5Handover55.9533.710.0072.11⁦−16.16⁩
Unallocated contingency12.360.000.006.18⁦+6.18⁩
Total412.00404.00333.52490.48⁦−78.48⁩

Budget split

WBS

SAR 412M

Budget

  • Management & governanceSAR 24M⁦6%⁩
  • Design & permitsSAR 48M⁦12%⁩
  • Civil worksSAR 151.9M⁦37%⁩
  • MEP worksSAR 119.9M⁦29%⁩
  • HandoverSAR 55.9M⁦14%⁩
  • Unallocated contingencySAR 12.4M⁦3%⁩

Cash flow

Planned, committed, actual and forecast

Spend per period

SAR millions

  • Planned
  • Actual
  • Forecast

Cumulative S-curve

Cumulative to close

  • Actual, then forecast
  • Planned, cumulative
  • Committed, cumulative
  • Forecast

Earned value management

At the data date ⁦2026-10-28⁩

Planned value, earned value and actual cost

  • Planned value
  • Earned value
  • Actual cost
  • Estimate at completion
  • Budget at completion

Finish by earned schedule

⁦2028-07-09⁩+648

SPI(t) ⁦0.60⁩ against the approved finish ⁦2026-09-30⁩

Planned valuePV
SAR 412M
The value of the work that should be done by today.
PV
Earned valueEV
SAR 280.2M
The value of the work actually done, at plan prices.
EV = % complete × BAC
Actual costAC
SAR 333.5M
What has actually been spent on the work done.
AC
Budget at completionBAC
SAR 412M
The approved budget for the whole project.
BAC
Cost varianceCV
⁦−53.36⁩ SAR M
Earned less actual; negative means paying more than the value.
CV = EV − AC
Schedule varianceSV
⁦−131.84⁩ SAR M
Earned less planned; negative means behind, in value.
SV = EV − PV
Cost performance indexCPI
0.84
Value produced per riyal spent; under 1 is an overrun.
CPI = EV ÷ AC
Schedule performance indexSPI
0.68
Work done over work planned; under 1 is behind.
SPI = EV ÷ PV
Estimate at completionEAC
SAR 490.5M
What the project will cost when it finishes, as forecast.
EAC = BAC ÷ CPI
Estimate to completeETC
SAR 157M
What is still to be spent to completion.
ETC = EAC − AC
Variance at completionVAC
⁦−78.48⁩ SAR M
Budget less the estimate; negative is an overrun.
VAC = BAC − EAC
To-complete performance indexTCPI
1.68
The cost efficiency the rest must reach to stay on budget.
TCPI = (BAC − EV) ÷ (BAC − AC)

Automatic end-of-project forecast

Four ways to estimate the final cost, and the date earned schedule points to

  • At today’s cost performanceSAR 490.5M
  • If the rest goes to planSAR 465.4M
  • At cost and schedule performanceSAR 564.3M
  • The PM’s bottom-up estimateSAR 490.5M
  • To stay within SAR 412M, cost performance on the rest must rise to ⁦1.68⁩ — above what has been achieved.

Estimate at completion at that performance

SAR 490.5M

Variance at completion: ⁦−78.48⁩ SAR M

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